Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Winner Takes All
Okay, so tonight I did what might be the most loserish thing of my life. I've been thinking for a while about the campaign of John McCain. The Republican party's primary set up is a winner takes all event. If a candidate wins the popular vote in the state, they carry every single one of the state's delegates. Thats why Senator McCain has already accumulated enough delegates to be the presumptive nominee for his party even with Mike Huckabee hanging on and stealing a good chunk of votes in many of the states. The Democrats on the other hand, have this lame, convuluted set up where the votes get carved up depending on which districts you won within the state. So like the disturbing 2000 election, there is the possibility that the less popular candidate will win the majority of delegates. So I started thinking, what if the Dems had a winner take all set up? So I dorkily created a Google Spreadsheet and inputted the numbers. And I was shocked. If the states that Hillary won were not divvied between her and Barack Obama, Hillary would be leading Obama by more than a thousand delegates! If we include the state of Ohio (which was just projected an hour or so ago) and Rhode Island, she'd currently have 1,476 delegates. Shes currently ahead in Texas. If she takes that her total would be 1,704. Wait, heres another doozy. If the votes counted from the Michigan and Florida primaries (which Hill won by huge margins) she'd be up to 2,070!! Now lets look at Barack Obama. Including the ridiculously liberal state of Vermont which he won tonight, he would only control 967 delegates!!! Thats a difference of 1,103! Why are the pundits not pointing this out? I know its a moot point. Its not the case, so why point out. But seriously. You cannot win the general election as the Democratic nominee unless you are immensely popular in the states that count. Hillary is the one winning the BIG states. California, New York, Massachusetts, Florida (if it was counted, damn DNC!). Shes the most popular Democratic candidate in these states. States that are must wins for the Democratic candidate for President. 6 of Obama's 14 wins were in states that are almost definitely red states come November. Some of the most ardent Democratic friends of mine are already predicting a McCain win in '08. Why? Because Obama may win the Democratic candidacy. And no matter how badly we must keep a Republican out of the next White House, McCain will beat Obama. McCain versus Clinton? He doesn't stand a chance.